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Buster

The Scottish/UK Politics Thread

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Posted (edited)

We used to have a lot of good political debate on previous forums before a certain someone took over. Thought we may as well try again.

With the MP’s and MSP’s returning in 2 weeks, the Brexit D-day edging, GERS figures released, talk of increasing the retirement age to 75 and the case for Scottish Independence widely spoken about, there is sure to be many talking points once again.

Edited by Buster

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The last "debate" was back at the Indyref and it quickly degenerated into nothing more, than politicians inane soundbites and slogans being parroted as if they were the gospel on both sides.  The national "debate" on Brexit has been no different, twice as bitter and three times as polemic.  Along with I'm sure a lot of others, I had no interest in seeing it repeated on here. 

A debate would be fine, if it is an actual debate. Not growl, snarl, hate hate, insult, condescending smarm, polemic twaddle.  I'll give it about fech all chance of not being like that considering the national standard, but fine bring it on.

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12 minutes ago, Darth Bino said:

The last "debate" was back at the Indyref and it quickly degenerated into nothing more, than politicians inane soundbites and slogans being parroted as if they were the gospel on both sides.  The national "debate" on Brexit has been no different, twice as bitter and three times as polemic.  Along with I'm sure a lot of others, I had no interest in seeing it repeated on here. 

A debate would be fine, if it is an actual debate. Not growl, snarl, hate hate, insult, condescending smarm, polemic twaddle.  I'll give it about fech all chance of not being like that considering the national standard, but fine bring it on.

agree with you Darth. The overall debate has been toxic. Less said the better 

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2 minutes ago, Bobs said:

agree with you Darth. The overall debate has been toxic. Less said the better 

I'm not trying to censor a debate out Bobs. I'm just saying why I've avoided one here. If some people want to have one they're entitled to have it. I will join it as I have elsewhere, but if it's anything like the national "debate" has been, it's not going to be a fun time.

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6 minutes ago, Darth Bino said:

I'm not trying to censor a debate out Bobs. 

Nor I Darth but watching all the hot air balloons in Parliament has sickened me. 

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Totally agree @Darth Bino and wouldn’t want a return of that, the key, and what I desire is the word debate.

Unless are there any other political forums that you would recommend me using?

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Buster said:

Totally agree @Darth Bino and wouldn’t want a return of that, the key, and what I desire is the word debate.

Unless are there any other political forums that you would recommend me using?

I've never seen one yet that didn't descend into a slanging match buddy, so here's as good a place as anywhere, who knows, it might even be an improvement?  I'll go for an example of a popular political buzzword on Brexit. debate it, duck and cover and see what comes back.

"Off a cliff." 

It has accurately been pointed out by remain that 80% of our exports to the EU are in financial services. It is also true that was virtually the case before passporting was even adopted.  The Whisky Association claim on their own website that their exports to the EU amount to 10% of UK exports to it. They have also expanded their exports consistently to non EU countries despite tariffs. That is because their biggest obstacle on price is UK excise duty, not other nations tariffs. I fail to see a cliff edge there on 90% of our exports to the EU.   

What about the other 10% then, what is it made up of?  Agricultural products, soft drinks, beer and other packaged food, drink, or alcohol products are supposed to be around 4% in total. I say supposed to be, because I can't get hold of an official figure. In actual goods manufacturing, we are left with about 6% in exports of goods products going to the EU. At a high estimate 8% max, if of course you trim the consumables figure down. Even at 8% our exports in manufactured goods to the EU is less than 4% of our total world exports. The biggest seller in that is in car sales from foreign owned companies. The top 5 are cars, medicinal and pharmaceutical products,  crude oil and aircraft.  A low percentage figure does not necessarily mean relative insignificance. A low percentage in volume can be a high percentage in value, but at this point if anybody can explain to me how tariffs on the 5% of our world exports that isn't whisky or financial services equates, with going off a economic cliff edge, feel free to explain it to me.

It is a personal cliff edge for people who lose their job over it. Some will, Buster already has. That's where the argument over does the price of  remaining against the price of leaving amount to mixed bag, rather than a slam dunk for one side or the other? It's certainly a slam dunk for you if you might, or have lost your livelihood over it. Family first, politics piss off is a position I've got no argument with, but back to our off a cliff soundbite.

When we joined the EEC as was in 1973, UK exports to it stood at 11% against 32% to our most important market, then, the USA. We actually had a surplus with the USA. By 1983, the figures had reversed 32% to the EEC, 11% to the USA. Overall we had gained nothing, in fact we had gone backwards, because we now had a trade deficit rising year on year, which was no compensation for the losses in the USA. That was 1983, since then exports to the now EU, have risen from 32%  of total world exports to 44%. over 36 years. That's actually pathetic a third of a % a year and no success story. We did get a massive trade deficit for a bonus though, but again, how is leaving that going off an economic cliff?  I'm not putting this as a case for Brexit, or against remain. I am putting it that "off a cliff" is on the same inane fact devoid level as, "I'm voting for the prosperity off my children."  Discuss.

 

Edited by Darth Bino
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Apologies, I missed one out on the top 5 UK goods exports to the EU. No 3 Mechanical power generators. I tries to edit again but it won't let me for some reason.

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1 hour ago, Darth Bino said:

Apologies, I missed one out on the top 5 UK goods exports to the EU. No 3 Mechanical power generators. I tries to edit again but it won't let me for some reason.

The financial services have already made their move Darth. In order to operate they require a sort of money licence and unlike a passport you can’t operate across the EU  boundary. So they have gone (Munich and Luxembourg seem to be the favourites. ) Their taxes paid about half of the NHS 

The whisky industry has been on a roll for the last 15 years. We have even got them working nights!!!! But a new set of taxes is as welcome as a hole in the head. It’s not so much that there will be a drop in employment more in tax revenue. 

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2 minutes ago, Bobs said:

The financial services have already made their move Darth. In order to operate they require a sort of money licence and unlike a passport you can’t operate across the EU  boundary. So they have gone (Munich and Luxembourg seem to be the favourites. ) Their taxes paid about half of the NHS 

The whisky industry has been on a roll for the last 15 years. We have even got them working nights!!!! But a new set of taxes is as welcome as a hole in the head. It’s not so much that there will be a drop in employment more in tax revenue. 

They call it passporting rights Bobs. The US banks estimated that getting them would gain them an increase of 6% in financial services trade. They already do 36% of their world trade in financial services without them.  What move have the US banks made other than moving their European financial services headquarters to their subsidiary businesses in other parts of Europe?  What move have British owned banks made, other than setting up new offices and staff within their pre-existing subsidiaries in Europe, to get around the problem by the same method? How does that equate with going off a financial cliff edge?

The whisky association increased their exports to Brazil by 48% in one year, despite tariffs.  Yes, tariffs put the price of your product up for consumers, (try explaining that to Trump) but they haven't held back the whisky industry outside the EU.  Would they do better without them?  You would think so, but are they and the banks facing a cliff edge? Not on any tangible evidence Bobs and that was my argument. Not are tariffs good or bad. That depends on if their protecting your workers, or putting them out of a job, depending on who's slapping them on who, on what and at what rate.  They can be good for some, bad for others.

On the other side of the argument, I've not seen any tangible evidence we would be on our way to a boom either.  Leaving the EU and doing a trade deal with the US does not come with a guarantee that we'll get back to a 32% of exports figure, or the surplus we used to enjoy.  As for the Leave favourite buzz phrase. "They need us more than we need them." They didn't need us to create the European project. They didn't need us to join it, for it to survive and develop into the political and fiscal union project we were promised it wouldn't be and they certainly don't need us to carry on with it. So, they need us more than we need them I place on my raspberry list, along with off a cliff and other  little beauties on both sides.  Can we agree that politicians soundbites and buzz phrases on both sides of any argument are best filed under the heading Horseshit?

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10 hours ago, Darth Bino said:

They call it passporting rights Bobs. The US banks estimated that getting them would gain them an increase of 6% in financial services trade. They already do 36% of their world trade in financial services without them.  What move have the US banks made other than moving their European financial services headquarters to their subsidiary businesses in other parts of Europe?  What move have British owned banks made, other than setting up new offices and staff within their pre-existing subsidiaries in Europe, to get around the problem by the same method? How does that equate with going off a financial cliff edge?

The whisky association increased their exports to Brazil by 48% in one year, despite tariffs.  Yes, tariffs put the price of your product up for consumers, (try explaining that to Trump) but they haven't held back the whisky industry outside the EU.  Would they do better without them?  You would think so, but are they and the banks facing a cliff edge? Not on any tangible evidence Bobs and that was my argument. Not are tariffs good or bad. That depends on if their protecting your workers, or putting them out of a job, depending on who's slapping them on who, on what and at what rate.  They can be good for some, bad for others.

On the other side of the argument, I've not seen any tangible evidence we would be on our way to a boom either.  Leaving the EU and doing a trade deal with the US does not come with a guarantee that we'll get back to a 32% of exports figure, or the surplus we used to enjoy.  As for the Leave favourite buzz phrase. "They need us more than we need them." They didn't need us to create the European project. They didn't need us to join it, for it to survive and develop into the political and fiscal union project we were promised it wouldn't be and they certainly don't need us to carry on with it. So, they need us more than we need them I place on my raspberry list, along with off a cliff and other  little beauties on both sides.  Can we agree that politicians soundbites and buzz phrases on both sides of any argument are best filed under the heading Horseshit?

What the Banks have done results in them paying taxes elsewhere. Whether we stay or leave that has already happened. A cliff edge? Let’s see how much our revenue falls.

The whisky industry has done wonders in expanding its market especially in developing countries. Talking to those involved I am told Brexit won’t make their job easier and they are quite worried about it. The EU is a big market and France/Italy etc would be quite happy to slap tariffs on and make their products cheaper in comparison. The Whisky product has to lie for at least 3 years before they can sell it and as a whole they are estimating demand 7 or more years ahead. A cliff edge? Let’s say estimating requires a leap of faith.

On the more general strategy let’s say I would rather have new markets before I sacrifice old ones, and I do not like the thought of depending on Trump! 

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6 hours ago, Bobs said:

What the Banks have done results in them paying taxes elsewhere. Whether we stay or leave that has already happened. A cliff edge? Let’s see how much our revenue falls.

The whisky industry has done wonders in expanding its market especially in developing countries. Talking to those involved I am told Brexit won’t make their job easier and they are quite worried about it. The EU is a big market and France/Italy etc would be quite happy to slap tariffs on and make their products cheaper in comparison. The Whisky product has to lie for at least 3 years before they can sell it and as a whole they are estimating demand 7 or more years ahead. A cliff edge? Let’s say estimating requires a leap of faith.

On the more general strategy let’s say I would rather have new markets before I sacrifice old ones, and I do not like the thought of depending on Trump! 

The EU is a big market Bobs and there's no doubt that leaving it without a free trade deal makes it more difficult than it already is to sell to it.  It's a double edged sword though. The fact can't be ignored that we have a huge trade deficit with it. It is not the Valhalla for British manufacturing exports it was originally sold to us as.  People can argue back not to blame the EU for that, but our own governments for abandoning the manufacturing sector for a service economy and they certainly have a point there.  However,  the ever expanding trade deficit problem remains.

The rest of the world is in fact a much bigger market and we still do the majority of goods export business with it despite tariffs. The same dilemmas are present there as with the EU though. At the same time as you make it easier to export, you open yourself up to cheaper imports. The richer more developed nations are not reliant on your exports and many others have populations so poor they can't afford them.  I've never seen it as heaven is over there rather than where we are, or vice versa. It's equally problematic either way. 

A big question for me is the one never asked. Do you need to have the expense and democratic problems of a political and fiscal union, with another three layers of government and life pensions to trade with another country?  Do you need it to have a common travel area, student exchanges and a free trade deal with it?  The obvious answer is no you don't. So why do it that way when just about all of it can be agreed without it? 

 

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Do we need all the layers of Government we have? Absolutely not (in my opinion). Do we need rules to govern trade? Absolutely (imo). Thatcher argued for a common market and baulked at the necessary rules. Once other politicians saw trade rules working they decided to build on it. Half wanted political union others, including GB, wanted more trade deals and more EU members. Result where we are now.

It is a real mess not helped by Parliaments where the politicians put party before country. 

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13 minutes ago, Bobs said:

Do we need all the layers of Government we have? Absolutely not (in my opinion). Do we need rules to govern trade? Absolutely (imo). Thatcher argued for a common market and baulked at the necessary rules. Once other politicians saw trade rules working they decided to build on it. Half wanted political union others, including GB, wanted more trade deals and more EU members. Result where we are now.

It is a real mess not helped by Parliaments where the politicians put party before country. 

Btw Darth, have you noticed that the rest of the Forum are sitting back in awe at our exchanges?

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1 minute ago, Bobs said:

Btw Darth, have you noticed that the rest of the Forum are sitting back in awe at our exchanges?

I'm just waiting for an appropriate moment to interrupt 

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Just now, chuckitphilliben said:

I'm just waiting for an appropriate moment to interrupt 

Bring it on my friend, bring it on.

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2 hours ago, Bobs said:

Do we need all the layers of Government we have? Absolutely not (in my opinion). Do we need rules to govern trade? Absolutely (imo). Thatcher argued for a common market and baulked at the necessary rules. Once other politicians saw trade rules working they decided to build on it. Half wanted political union others, including GB, wanted more trade deals and more EU members. Result where we are now.

It is a real mess not helped by Parliaments where the politicians put party before country. 

I think you meant the single market rather than the common market Bobs, that was already there. You're right though that it came with further political and fiscal integration and of course the single currency and more rules.

Perhaps if they'd asked the electorate then, if they actually wanted it without any mandate for it, we wouldn't be where we are now?  They might have got no for an answer though and since anyone educated under the comprehensive system they run, is now deemed to be "uneducated" by the Westminster geniuses if they don't have a degree, that would just be rude to them. You'll forgive me for laughing that MP's judgement on own their performance in charge of education, is apparently abject failure.

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2 hours ago, Bobs said:

Btw Darth, have you noticed that the rest of the Forum are sitting back in awe at our exchanges?

They're probably just wondering when the death threats will start Bobs.:classic_smile:

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2 hours ago, chuckitphilliben said:

I'm just waiting for an appropriate moment to interrupt 

Dare I say, the clock is ticking? :classic_rolleyes:

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1 hour ago, Darth Bino said:

Dare I say, the clock is ticking? :classic_rolleyes:

does this mean that his contribution would be a tick talk? 😂

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There's a thread on P&B which is over 1500 pages on "Brexit slowly becoming a farce". There are some intelligent and well informed posters on there (as well as the eejits), but it's quite noticeable how entrenched the opinions are pro and anti Brexit.

I'm mostly with Darth here in that a lot of talk reaches almost pete levels of hysteria. I think we're likely to be worse off economically in the short term at least because of the disruption to an established way of working and many businesses being unable to organise themselves due to the uncertainty of what's going to happen. Both extremes of staying in or a no deal are still firmly on the table making it difficult for mainl sme's

How things pan out after it's concluded (and the repercussions could last years) is mostly conjecture imo, and I have little faith in our politicians to do a good job.

There is of course the increasing chance that all this shenanigans may result in another independence referendum being on the table!  

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24 minutes ago, gmca said:

There's a thread on P&B which is over 1500 pages on "Brexit slowly becoming a farce". There are some intelligent and well informed posters on there (as well as the eejits), but it's quite noticeable how entrenched the opinions are pro and anti Brexit.

I'm mostly with Darth here in that a lot of talk reaches almost pete levels of hysteria. I think we're likely to be worse off economically in the short term at least because of the disruption to an established way of working and many businesses being unable to organise themselves due to the uncertainty of what's going to happen. Both extremes of staying in or a no deal are still firmly on the table making it difficult for mainl sme's

How things pan out after it's concluded (and the repercussions could last years) is mostly conjecture imo, and I have little faith in our politicians to do a good job.

There is of course the increasing chance that all this shenanigans may result in another independence referendum being on the table!  

And I agree with all of that. It's not just hysteria though it's literally hatred. Ramped up by politicians and elements of the press, with comments that my generation, "threw young people under a bus." (favourite buzz phrase No.3) and don't care about their children and grandchildren.  If you said that about a religious group, or a race, you'd be pilloried for hate speech, but old people? Hey no problem. Spouted loudest by those with the most to say about racism and anti Semitism, such as Polly Toynbee and Chuka Ummuna. Talk about an Irony bypass!  Amazing how people who didn't give a toss about issues like student debt and teenagers being denied the minimum wage, suddenly became the champions of youth  after the referendum.  

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4 hours ago, Bobs said:

Btw Darth, have you noticed that the rest of the Forum are sitting back in awe at our exchanges?

Absolutely Bobs and I’ve actually read a different slant on things and read a couple of things that I didn’t know. That’s exactly why I wanted this thread back, challenge your own way of thinking or educate yourself in things you didn’t already know.

42 minutes ago, gmca said:

There is of course the increasing chance that all this shenanigans may result in another independence referendum being on the table!  

Although I don’t go around broadcasting it, as a supporter of Independence I would say that this has indeed caused another referendum to be on the table and, although i’m not totally convinced Yes would win, I do believe the last 3 years will convert more from No to Yes than the opposite way about, but don’t see the current Tory Government taking a chance on granting us the permission to do it.

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23 minutes ago, Buster said:

 

Although I don’t go around broadcasting it, as a supporter of Independence I would say that this has indeed caused another referendum to be on the table and, although i’m not totally convinced Yes would win, I do believe the last 3 years will convert more from No to Yes than the opposite way about, but don’t see the current Tory Government taking a chance on granting us the permission to do it.

Or a Labour government for that matter Buster. Better together isn't dead, it's just having a domestic tiff over Brexit. I'm sure they'll all sing with one voice over Scottish independence, as in Naw!

I assume nothing about how Scots would vote and never underestimate the strength of UK unionism. Scots may be divided, but they're not daft.  They'll want to see how this Brexit farce pans out. Would we face having tariffs between Scotland and the rest of the UK if we left and nestled in with the EU? I don't see many No voters having a change of heart faced with that scenario. I might bloody join them, because I don't fancy it either.

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I think too that there are real dilemmas ahead for voters. The fishing industry by and large voted to leave. Understandably they would prefer foreign boats out of our water. They are also pro independence for the same reason. Yet the SNP want to stay in the EU. How do they vote?

One way they get independence but have foreigners fishing in our waters cause we are in the EU or.... they get rid of the EU but no independence. 

No doubt someone will tell me that they can have their cake and eat it but i cant see the EU allowing an independent Scotland in to the club without access to our waters

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